Will McCain Adopt the "CA Strategy"? (Full Version)

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gengwall -> Will McCain Adopt the "CA Strategy"? (5/9/2008 1:04:08 PM)

With Obama now the presumptive nominee, will McCain make a full throttle press to win California? He has a simpatico Govenor there, has more geographic and cultural compatability with the CA population, and is likely to do far better than Bush (and maybe even beat Obama) in both the independent and latino blocks of voters. A win in CA and he could lose Florida, Ohio, Missouri and Colorado to Obama (all '04 Bush wins)and still win the election (not that I think he will lose FL for many of the same reasons). That doesn't even include potential pick-ups for McCain in PA, MN, and WI (all barely won by Kerry in '04)



CherishedbyGod -> RE: Will McCain Adopt the "CA Strategy"? (5/9/2008 1:24:03 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: gengwall

With Obama now the presumptive nominee, will McCain make a full throttle press to win California? He has a simpatico Govenor there, has more geographic and cultural compatability with the CA population, and is likely to do far better than Bush (and maybe even beat Obama) in both the independent and latino blocks of voters. A win in CA and he could lose Florida, Ohio, Missouri and Colorado to Obama (all '04 Bush wins)and still win the election (not that I think he will lose FL for many of the same reasons). That doesn't even include potential pick-ups for McCain in PA, MN, and WI (all barely won by Kerry in '04)


I am a Californian - He may try but I think he would fail. California is sooo liberal now, for the most part.

Arnie is very popular but I doubt if he would make that much difference in the outcome.



gengwall -> RE: Will McCain Adopt the "CA Strategy"? (5/9/2008 1:32:28 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: CherishedbyGod

quote:

ORIGINAL: gengwall

With Obama now the presumptive nominee, will McCain make a full throttle press to win California? He has a simpatico Govenor there, has more geographic and cultural compatability with the CA population, and is likely to do far better than Bush (and maybe even beat Obama) in both the independent and latino blocks of voters. A win in CA and he could lose Florida, Ohio, Missouri and Colorado to Obama (all '04 Bush wins)and still win the election (not that I think he will lose FL for many of the same reasons). That doesn't even include potential pick-ups for McCain in PA, MN, and WI (all barely won by Kerry in '04)


I am a Californian - He may try but I think he would fail. California is sooo liberal now, for the most part.

Arnie is very popular but I doubt if he would make that much difference in the outcome.
The latino vote in CA is around 21% of the total vote. In '04 Bush only got 32% of that block. McCain will almost certainly do better than that. That will have an impact. Independents are 27% of the voters and Bush got only 36% of that block. Again, McCain promises to do much better. By ideology, 46% of the voters declare themselves "moderate" vs. "conservative" or "liberal". It will not be hard to paint Obama as a radical liberal and McCain has been pandering to the middle for years now. Combine those factors and add Arnold promoting him 24/7 and I think you will see a huge swing by the middle toward McCain. It could be enough to push him over the top, especially if he campaigns long and hard there.

The other strategic effect of hitting CA hard is that Obama will have to campaign just as hard, drawing him away from campaigning in states he may think he can swing. Either way, I see the "CA Strategy" as being a win win for McCain.



wing2000 -> RE: Will McCain Adopt the "CA Strategy"? (5/10/2008 2:23:00 AM)

quote:


46% of the voters declare themselves "moderate"


Yes, but many of those moderates are breaking for Obama. How do you think Obama won so many western states? The independents and moderates who crossed party lines. Even in November, I think some former red states such as Colorado will go Democratic.

This is a Democratic year --

1. The economy - Voters always vote their pocket book (even though the POTUS has little power over the economy)
2. The war
3. Eight years of Republican power

I like John McCain but he's running with the wrong brand this year. It's too bad he didn't win the nomination in 2000.



SovereignIsHe -> RE: Will McCain Adopt the "CA Strategy"? (5/10/2008 11:35:25 PM)

McCain cannot win California... The main population areas are solid liberal...



gengwall -> RE: Will McCain Adopt the "CA Strategy"? (5/12/2008 10:25:26 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: wing2000

quote:


46% of the voters declare themselves "moderate"


Yes, but many of those moderates are breaking for Obama. How do you think Obama won so many western states? The independents and moderates who crossed party lines. Even in November, I think some former red states such as Colorado will go Democratic.

This is a Democratic year --

1. The economy - Voters always vote their pocket book (even though the POTUS has little power over the economy)
2. The war
3. Eight years of Republican power

I like John McCain but he's running with the wrong brand this year. It's too bad he didn't win the nomination in 2000.
But he didn't win California.



gengwall -> RE: Will McCain Adopt the "CA Strategy"? (5/12/2008 10:26:37 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: SovereignIsHe

McCain cannot win California... The main population areas are solid liberal...

Then how did Arnold win?



SovereignIsHe -> RE: Will McCain Adopt the "CA Strategy"? (5/12/2008 12:35:55 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: gengwall

Then how did Arnold win?


Because he's even less a Republican than McCain is... And he came into a wounded California and sold himself as the healer. McCain doesn't have the general appeal that Arnold has and I don't believe he can package himself like Arnold was able to...

John



gengwall -> RE: Will McCain Adopt the "CA Strategy"? (5/12/2008 12:43:03 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: SovereignIsHe

quote:

ORIGINAL: gengwall

Then how did Arnold win?


Because he's even less a Republican than McCain is... And he came into a wounded California and sold himself as the healer. McCain doesn't have the general appeal that Arnold has and I don't believe he can package himself like Arnold was able to...

John

But he will have a very willing Arnold on the campaign trail for him every day. Won't that make a difference in "selling" McCain to the CA voters?



CherishedbyGod -> RE: Will McCain Adopt the "CA Strategy"? (5/12/2008 7:12:10 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: gengwall

quote:

ORIGINAL: CherishedbyGod

quote:

ORIGINAL: gengwall

With Obama now the presumptive nominee, will McCain make a full throttle press to win California? He has a simpatico Govenor there, has more geographic and cultural compatability with the CA population, and is likely to do far better than Bush (and maybe even beat Obama) in both the independent and latino blocks of voters. A win in CA and he could lose Florida, Ohio, Missouri and Colorado to Obama (all '04 Bush wins)and still win the election (not that I think he will lose FL for many of the same reasons). That doesn't even include potential pick-ups for McCain in PA, MN, and WI (all barely won by Kerry in '04)


I am a Californian - He may try but I think he would fail. California is sooo liberal now, for the most part.

Arnie is very popular but I doubt if he would make that much difference in the outcome.
The latino vote in CA is around 21% of the total vote. In '04 Bush only got 32% of that block. McCain will almost certainly do better than that. That will have an impact. Independents are 27% of the voters and Bush got only 36% of that block. Again, McCain promises to do much better. By ideology, 46% of the voters declare themselves "moderate" vs. "conservative" or "liberal". It will not be hard to paint Obama as a radical liberal and McCain has been pandering to the middle for years now. Combine those factors and add Arnold promoting him 24/7 and I think you will see a huge swing by the middle toward McCain. It could be enough to push him over the top, especially if he campaigns long and hard there.

The other strategic effect of hitting CA hard is that Obama will have to campaign just as hard, drawing him away from campaigning in states he may think he can swing. Either way, I see the "CA Strategy" as being a win win for McCain.


You need to come live here to understand just how liberal this state is. One of the main reasons Arnie won and won big the second time is he is very charismatic and the consumate polititian. He is a very liberal Ronald Reagan and he either has a very savy wife in Maria or just has what it takes to win elections. I did not vote for him and yet I even "like" the guy[8|] I don't think he will be able to sway voters towards McCain.

Frankly, I am also very concerned about McCains's age, also. When one sees a young, energetic B.O. who is a fantastic orator next to an aged McCain many will be turned off, IMHO to McCain...Especially in this state of "beach blanket bingo"[8D]



SovereignIsHe -> RE: Will McCain Adopt the "CA Strategy"? (5/12/2008 10:03:42 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: gengwall
But he will have a very willing Arnold on the campaign trail for him every day. Won't that make a difference in "selling" McCain to the CA voters?


I don't believe it will in the very Liberal parts of California... I don't think Arnold appeal can be placed on McCain... Just the same way Clinton couldn't place it on Al Gore and he lost to the likes of George Bush...

John



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