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Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/14/2008 8:24:45 PM
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prophet
Posts: 361
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Buying GOLD!
Your economy is tanking.
The banks are dying in bad loans
People are losing their jobs
AND greatest problem you owe the world
The Outstanding Public Debt as of 15 Jul 2008 at 12:22:25 AM GMT is:
USD 9,506,772,356,992.99 !!!!!
Your USD will go down the drain and you have to protect yourselves.
BUY GOLD .......
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/14/2008 10:27:36 PM
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prophet
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Ps
Wow!
This is where its unwinding due to the property crsis.
According to Bloomberg, "Freddie Mac owed $5.2 billion more than its assets were worth in the first quarter, making it insolvent under fair value accounting rules... The fair value of Fannie Mae's assets fell 66 percent to $12.2 billion, data provided by the Washington-based company show, and may be negative next quarter."
Warren Buffett has made statements in the past that he feared the failure of Fannie and Freddie could set off a "derivatives time bomb" that would implode the whole financial system.
This may set off another round of credit crunching after the bear sterns bailout.
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/14/2008 10:29:04 PM
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prophet
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Struggling IndyMac says depositors pulling cash
Tue Jul 8, 2008 2:55pm EDT
By Jonathan Stempel
NEW YORK (Reuters) - IndyMac Bancorp Inc (IMB.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) on Tuesday said depositors were withdrawing cash at an "elevated" pace after a prominent U.S. senator recently questioned the big mortgage lender's ability to survive the U.S. housing crisis.
Shares of the largest independent, publicly traded U.S. mortgage lender fell as much as 52 percent.
Paul Miller, a Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co analyst, said shareholders could be wiped out, and cut his price target for the parent of the IndyMac Bank thrift to zero per share from $1.00.
"It's hard to gauge how this situation will resolve itself," said Christopher Wolfe, managing director at Fitch Ratings, which downgraded IndyMac on Tuesday. "We see a high likelihood of some kind of regulatory intervention occurring, which could result in asset dispositions, or the thrift going into receivership."
In a regulatory filing, IndyMac said it still faces "elevated levels of deposit withdrawals" after Sen. Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, late last month raised questions to regulators about a potential collapse.
Mortgage rivals that have already met their demises include New Century Financial Corp NEWCQ.PK and American Home Mortgage Investment Corp AHMIQ.PK, which filed for bankruptcy protection last year. Countrywide Financial Corp avoided possible collapse when it was acquired last week by Bank of America Corp (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).
IndyMac said it is working with regulators on a new business plan after soaring credit problems resulted in $896 million of losses in the nine months ended March 31.
The lender said it has $18 billion of deposits, of which more than 96 percent have Federal Deposit Insurance Corp insurance.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...44512020080708
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/16/2008 4:05:47 PM
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JimboFletch
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Long term, the worst advice in the world is to tell people to "invest" in gold. Gold is a good hedge against inflation, but not a good return. Any spike in gold prices beyond simple inflation is just a bubble that will, no maybe, will burst and eat up your money very quickly when it does.
But if you're in a panic, it is certainly a way to protect your capital - if you don't buy too high and keep it too long.
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/16/2008 4:13:02 PM
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Apparition
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quote:
ORIGINAL: JimboFletch
Long term, the worst advice in the world is to tell people to "invest" in gold. Gold is a good hedge against inflation, but not a good return. Any spike in gold prices beyond simple inflation is just a bubble that will, no maybe, will burst and eat up your money very quickly when it does.
But if you're in a panic, it is certainly a way to protect your capital - if you don't buy too high and keep it too long.
Agreed.
Precious metals are a good way to store purchase power but not always good 'investments.'
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/16/2008 7:32:55 PM
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GroupW
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And I think that train already left the station....
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"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/16/2008 7:47:30 PM
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prophet
Posts: 361
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quote:
ORIGINAL: JimboFletch
Long term, the worst advice in the world is to tell people to "invest" in gold. Gold is a good hedge against inflation, but not a good return. Any spike in gold prices beyond simple inflation is just a bubble that will, no maybe, will burst and eat up your money very quickly when it does.
But if you're in a panic, it is certainly a way to protect your capital - if you don't buy too high and keep it too long.
Its not just a simple matter of inflation. Its a matter of the demise of the USD. Gold is inverse to USD. USD has been on the down trend from since 5 years back....while gold has been trending upwards from $250 to $960 today.
Since americans have $$$, they should look at Gold to maintain value.
The happenings to your finance institutions indicates that $ will go further down.......
Shalom
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/16/2008 11:04:53 PM
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prophet
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...bcngold103.xml
Gold: the precious laggard that will hit $2,000
By Ian Williams, Charteris Treasury Portfolio Managers
Last Updated: 2:00am BST 08/07/2008
Have your say Read comments
In 1999 when oil was $10 a barrel, I suggested that the price would ride fivefold to $50 a barrel in real terms over the next few years. This forecast was dismissed with incredulity at the time. Almost 10 years later with the price over $130 a barrel, my original forecast turned out to be rather timid - with mainstream commentators now forecasting $200 a barrel.
Gold and Oil. Oil is the laggard commodity set to play catch up to $2,000 an ounce
Soaring oil costs have pushed the gold/oil ratio to the lowest levels in decades
My forecast was based on an analysis of long term future supply-demand trends, combined with a study of ultra-long term commodity cycles.
# How to invest in gold
What is striking about ultra-long term commodity cycles is how seemingly unrelated commodities appear to rise and fall together.
Price data shows that around 1999-2000, virtually every single commodity hit a significant low before turning up sharply. Nickel hit a low before proceeding to rise ten-fold in the period up to April 2007. Similarly copper also bottomed around this time before an eight-fold rise up to May 2006. Copper is once again challenging its all-time high and looks set to move into new high ground.
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The reasons for this stellar performance are now well-trodden - the emergence of China, India and Russia - as major consumers of scarce and in some cases increasingly finite resources.
This commodity super-cycle phenomenon shows no signs of abating. But to profit from it, investors need an understanding of the leads and lags within the commodity family to avoid being caught buying a particular commodity at a short-term peak in its price. I would be very wary about buying oil assets at present - simply because the price of oil in relationship to other raw materials is becoming very stretched.
Instead a study of the laggards in the raw material family is likely to prove more profitable and carry less risk.
Gold is one of the biggest laggards and the one that confuses investors most. Like other commodities it made its super-cycle low in 1999 at $250 an ounce - a level now etched on the record of Gordon Brown who made the calamitous decision to sell half the UK's gold reserves at the absolute bottom of the market. Unlike oil, copper, nickel and a host of other commodities which have seen rises of between eight and thirteen fold increases in the last ten years, gold has risen a mere three and a half times from its low. This puts gold and gold mining shares very firmly in the laggard category.
Gold prices charted over 20 years.................
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/17/2008 2:52:50 AM
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prophet
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But hey lookie at the chart from 2002 to 2008...pretty impressive if ya asked me.
Thats $250 to $960...284% gain....not too bad at alll.... 
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/17/2008 11:26:23 AM
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NoShow
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quote:
ORIGINAL: JimboFletch
quote:
ORIGINAL: prophet
Its not just a simple matter of inflation. Its a matter of the demise of the USD. Gold is inverse to USD. USD has been on the down trend from since 5 years back....while gold has been trending upwards from $250 to $960 today.
And how am I to buy food, gas, shelter, medical, etc. if I tie up most or all of my USD into gold? I have no monthly bills that can be paid in gold.
Now, if you're planning to convert all money into gold and move to the hills until civilization has destroyed itself, then that might be another matter... equally unacceptable and reminiscent of the Y2K panic. We aren't going there, are we?
Besides, in that scenario, you're better off buying lead, than gold.
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/17/2008 7:53:30 PM
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prophet
Posts: 361
Joined: 4/19/2005
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quote:
ORIGINAL: JimboFletch
quote:
ORIGINAL: prophet
Its not just a simple matter of inflation. Its a matter of the demise of the USD. Gold is inverse to USD. USD has been on the down trend from since 5 years back....while gold has been trending upwards from $250 to $960 today.
And how am I to buy food, gas, shelter, medical, etc. if I tie up most or all of my USD into gold? I have no monthly bills that can be paid in gold.
Now, if you're planning to convert all money into gold and move to the hills until civilization has destroyed itself, then that might be another matter... equally unacceptable and reminiscent of the Y2K panic. We aren't going there, are we?
Not suggesting to convert Everything into gold but most. Keep some FRNs for exchnge of goods.
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Create in me a Clean Heart, O Lord.
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/17/2008 7:56:48 PM
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prophet
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quote:
ORIGINAL: NoShow
quote:
ORIGINAL: JimboFletch
quote:
ORIGINAL: prophet
Its not just a simple matter of inflation. Its a matter of the demise of the USD. Gold is inverse to USD. USD has been on the down trend from since 5 years back....while gold has been trending upwards from $250 to $960 today.
And how am I to buy food, gas, shelter, medical, etc. if I tie up most or all of my USD into gold? I have no monthly bills that can be paid in gold.
Now, if you're planning to convert all money into gold and move to the hills until civilization has destroyed itself, then that might be another matter... equally unacceptable and reminiscent of the Y2K panic. We aren't going there, are we?
Besides, in that scenario, you're better off buying lead, than gold.
Come again? Ever since anyone trade for goods/services with lead?
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Create in me a Clean Heart, O Lord.
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/17/2008 8:01:30 PM
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prophet
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Nouriel Roubini predicts the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and the worst U.S. Recession in the last few decades. This isn't a Pollyanna report folks... This guy is good at what he does, is well respected, and I think is bang on here!
Here are two of his latest points... Again, put away the sharp objects!
"The FDIC that has already depleted 10% of its funds in the rescue of IndyMac alone will run out of funds and will have to be recapitalized by Congress as its insurance premia were woefully insufficient to cover the hole from the biggest banking crisis since the Great Depression.
Fannie and Freddie are insolvent and the Treasury bailout plan (the mother of all moral hazard bailout) is socialism for the rich, the well connected and Wall Street; it is the continuation of a corrupt system where profits are privatized and losses are socialized. Instead of wiping out shareholders of the two GSEs, replacing corrupt and incompetent managers and forcing a haircut on the claims of the creditors/bondholders such a plan bails out shareholders, managers and creditors at a massive cost to U.S. taxpayers."
http://www.dailypfennig.com
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/17/2008 8:19:24 PM
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prophet
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Another good read.....
DERIVATIVES, BANKS, AND BAILOUTS
We at Guild Investment Management have mentioned the problems with derivatives 31 times in the five years between 2003 and the present in our market commentaries, yet people did not listen. Now, many people call us who own bank stocks and banking related instruments wondering what to do. Our opinion is to sell into rallies U.S. banking related stocks. There is no reason to own banking stocks in this environment as the problems will continue for years. In the end, many equity shareholders will be wiped out.
If the U.S. Fed, U.K. central bank, and other central banks continue to protect all of the institutions, all of the shareholders, and all the depositors, the crisis will actually be more prolonged and more difficult to come out of than if they let a lot of the smaller institutions go broke.
Thus far, it is obvious that the Fed and the U.S. and U.K. administrations want to make the government the lender of last resort and make it a world where mistakes are not punished. We go on record saying that this is a mistake...the example of Japan comes to mind.
The Japanese market peaked in 1990 at about 40,000 on the Nikkei 225 just as their banking crisis began. Japan did not confront their banking crisis. They kept a lot of 'zombie' banks alive and did not write off the bad loans. The banking system languished and the Japanese stock market bottomed down over 75% from its highs when it got to about 9,000 in 2003. Today it is still only at 13,000.
Is that what you would like to see in the U.S. and Europe? If so, then go ahead and continue with what looks to be the current Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury strategy of keeping weak institutions operating 'as if' they were healthy and able to lend.
FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC... A BIG BAILOUT HAPPENED THIS WEEK AND IT WILL CREATE GLOBAL INFLATION
As we all know, these two institutions were in effect taken over by the U.S. Federal Government, which will supply their equity and guarantee their debt for the time being. The government intervened because much of the two agencies' $5 trillion of endangered debt is held by foreign central banks. This is a bailout and it will create a lot of liquidity which will be thrown into the system. An end result of the bailout is that it pumps massive liquidity into the system. This new liquidity is on top of all the other liquidity, foreign and domestic, that is piling into the system...thereby further fueling inflation in commodities, raw materials, foods, energy, transportation and services, and of course precious metals.
In our opinion, inflation will be the game, not deflation...unless they are unable to flood the economy and banking system with enough money to rebuild liquidity. They will continue to try, but if they cannot do this within three or four years, then we expect deflation can take hold. In the meantime, we are planning on inflation for the next few years and higher gold and food prices...and a lower dollar.
For our clients, we have been shifting out of some gold ETF's and into some big cap gold stocks, which can perform better if there is a quick run in the gold price.
WHAT WE KNOW
1) In the United States (as is already the case in most developed nations), the federal government will control the residential mortgage business. The U.S. Government will be more conservative than the old Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the savings banks...and much more conservative than the investment bank and commercial bank loan re-packagers. Thus, the residential mortgage business will be the bailiwick of the national government, and loans will be harder to get. The result is bad for real estate values in the U.S. The residential real estate recession will be longer and stronger than most had thought.
The reduced availability of capital for real estate will cause prices to continue to fall in the U.S. and in most other countries in the developed world. Thus, I look for lower real estate prices in two years. Real estate will not be a big driver of the developed economies for years to come...(As an aside, real estate values will continue to rise in the oil exporting states of the Middle East, China, and probably Brazil, where big investment flows into the economies will keep prices high and rising.)
2) Fed Chairman Bernanke has agreed to let the dollar fall. Investors will move to foreign currencies, especially those with strong current account surpluses or strong export profiles.
3) Global money supply is strong and growing, so inflation expectations will push non U.S. currencies up and the U.S. dollar down. Inflation will follow and investors will focus on gold, food related and energy investments.
4) Financial stocks in the developed world continue to need to correct bad loans and need to replenish capital. They will be underperformers while commodity related sectors and commodities will outperform.
SUMMARY-INFLATION IS IN THE FUTURE
Don't listen to the PR programs on financial TV about the rally in financial stocks and how great they are going to be. The plain fact is that if you look at the quality of the assets and debt on their balance sheets of most financial companies in all countries of the developed world, they are in trouble. They need equity, and they need to get the toxic debt off of their balance sheets.
In our opinion, it will be unwise to buy them. They are doing a big sales pitch on financial TV and in the press because they want to sell more equity to investors...and they can't do that until people believe that things are getting better.
The U.S. dollar is in danger and will fall a lot in coming years. In our opinion, gold is the safest bet along with food stuffs and foreign currencies of well managed countries. This is not a recommendation, but you may want to take a look at the currencies of Australia, Canada, China and Norway. However, be careful to monitor their current account surplus or deficit and their short term interest rates relative to the U.S. In our opinion, changes in short term interest rates versus the U.S. and changes in current account versus the U.S. will determine currency fluctuations..............................
www.GuildInvestment.com
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Create in me a Clean Heart, O Lord.
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/17/2008 8:22:51 PM
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prophet
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Imagine this...........if USA was a corporation with a balance sheet.
With all the printing of the USD, what would the balance sheet look like now?
How long can a corporation borrow and in defecit year after yaer?
Will USA be bankrupt?
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/18/2008 11:21:20 AM
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Consecrated2God
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I bet if I took a gold coin to McDonald's to get a hamburger they wouldn't be set up to accept it.
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/18/2008 11:22:21 AM
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Consecrated2God
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quote:
Maybe thats why its called God's ordained currency.
It is? I've never heard it called that before.
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/19/2008 2:17:12 AM
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prophet
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Consecrated2God
quote:
Maybe thats why its called God's ordained currency.
It is? I've never heard it called that before.
Not explictly but
Biblical reasons why real money and wealth is gold and silver
The King James Bible mentions gold 417 times, silver 320 times, and money, which is mentioned 140 times, refers to physical silver and gold. Not once does it mention a paper currency.
Gold and silver are mentioned all through the bible as real wealth, even through the end of Revelation.
From Genesis to Revelation, gold and silver are the only God-ordained monetary assets that will maintain their purchasing power until the day of the Lord’s wrath.
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/19/2008 9:33:10 AM
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Consecrated2God
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quote:
Not once does it mention a paper currency.
Why would they? They didn't use paper currency in that time and culture.
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RE: Americans, protect your finances by.... - 7/19/2008 11:57:16 AM
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bzirk
Posts: 2906
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From: Where the deer and antelope play
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quote:
ORIGINAL: JimboFletch
Long term, the worst advice in the world is to tell people to "invest" in gold. Gold is a good hedge against inflation, but not a good return. Any spike in gold prices beyond simple inflation is just a bubble that will, no maybe, will burst and eat up your money very quickly when it does.
But if you're in a panic, it is certainly a way to protect your capital - if you don't buy too high and keep it too long.
I agree, but then we shouldn't make those kinds of decisions in a panic. Proverbs continually speaks of folly (meaning foolish behavior that has the connotation of rashness). Jumping off into gold out of panic may well get someone in a much deeper hole.
Anytime someone is exhibiting fear, it's not good to respond to it with fear.
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Therefore, there is now no condemnation for those who are in Christ Jesus (Romans 8:1)
Great quote: I just ain't God and don't know it all. -- SonInMe1
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